Statistical Analysis

Understanding the Data

A deeper look at trends, demographics, and what the numbers actually tell us — including rigorous context around transgender representation among assailants.

How to read these statistics: Raw counts without population context can mislead. A group that makes up 0.6% of the population committing 0.6% of crimes is not "overrepresented" — it's exactly proportional. The analysis below places all figures in their proper demographic context.

Transgender Assailants: Full Context

Transgender Assailants
on Record

out of 1,257 total assailants

0.24%

% of All Assailants
Who Were Trans

0.8%

Trans People as %
of U.S. Population

Williams Institute, UCLA School of Law (2025)

0.26%

% of Incidents with
a Trans Assailant

Expected vs. Actual: A Population Comparison

If transgender people committed school shootings at exactly the same rate as their share of the population (~0.8%), we would expect roughly 10 transgender assailants out of 1,257 total. The actual count is 3.

Expected (if proportional to population)

Actual transgender assailants recorded

0.3×

Ratio of actual to expected (1.0 = exactly proportional)

99.8%

Incidents carried out by non-transgender assailants

A ratio of 0.3× means transgender people appear less frequently among assailants than their population share would predict. In all cases, the overwhelming majority of school shooting assailants are not transgender.

Trends Over Time

Incidents Per Year: Trans vs. Non-Trans Assailant

Trans Assailants as % of All Assailants (by Year)

By State (Top 20)

State	Incidents	Deaths	Injuries	Deaths/ Incident
CA	117	128	243	1.09
MI	83	32	115	0.39
TX	77	85	139	1.10
IL	59	35	81	0.59
FL	53	41	77	0.77
PA	52	32	68	0.62
NY	42	21	45	0.50
NC	40	19	44	0.48
GA	37	21	45	0.57
TN	36	28	29	0.78
MD	33	10	35	0.30
AL	31	12	52	0.39
VA	31	53	76	1.71
OH	29	12	35	0.41
MO	28	18	28	0.64
LA	27	22	38	0.81
IN	24	11	14	0.46
KS	23	8	31	0.35
WA	23	29	23	1.26
KY	22	20	38	0.91

All statistics on this page are derived directly from the incidents database. Transgender population figures are sourced from the Williams Institute, UCLA School of Law (2025) and represent the estimated percentage of U.S. adults who identify as transgender.